It's harder to see how far the census falls short of measuring all the people, but the Census Bureau has been doing it since 1940 using records such as birth and death certificates as an independent check. For example, in 1940, 3 percent more draft-age men showed up for the draft pool than the census found -- including 13 percent more black men. Although all census directors knew the census never counted everybody, this was the first measured knowledge that the undercount was higher for minorities.
In response to these developments, bipartisan legislation in Congress created a special panel of experts in 1992 at the National Academy of Sciences to study the mounting problems regarding census accuracy and cost issues. In 1994 the congressionally mandated panel, composed of nationally recognized experts in the fields of demography and statistics, reached three basic conclusions:
First, the academy declared, "It is fruitless to continue trying to count every last person with traditional census methods of physical enumeration. Simply providing additional funds to enable the Census Bureau to carry out the 2000 census using traditional methods, as it has in previous censuses, will not lead to improved coverage or data quality."
Second, the academy concluded that "it is possible to improve the accuracy of the census count with respect to its most important attributes by supplementing a reduced intensity of traditional enumeration with statistical estimates of the number and characteristics of those not directly enumerated."
Third, the academy added that "once a decision is made to use statistical enumeration for completing the count, a thorough review and reengineering of census procedures and operations could achieve substantial cost savings in the next census, even as accuracy is being improved."
In response to these developments, bipartisan legislation in Congress created a special panel of experts in 1992 at the National Academy of Sciences to study the mounting problems regarding census accuracy and cost issues. In 1994 the congressionally mandated panel, composed of nationally recognized experts in the fields of demography and statistics, reached three basic conclusions:
First, the academy declared, "It is fruitless to continue trying to count every last person with traditional census methods of physical enumeration. Simply providing additional funds to enable the Census Bureau to carry out the 2000 census using traditional methods, as it has in previous censuses, will not lead to improved coverage or data quality."
Second, the academy concluded that "it is possible to improve the accuracy of the census count with respect to its most important attributes by supplementing a reduced intensity of traditional enumeration with statistical estimates of the number and characteristics of those not directly enumerated."
Third, the academy added that "once a decision is made to use statistical enumeration for completing the count, a thorough review and reengineering of census procedures and operations could achieve substantial cost savings in the next census, even as accuracy is being improved."
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