Turning Indiana blue

From Salon, "Turning Indiana blue: Put off by the McCain-Palin ticket, suburban Republicans are backing Barack Obama -- who might score a rare Democratic win in the Hoosier State," by Walter Shapiro:

In presidential elections since the Depression, Indiana has been the lone industrial state where the elephants always roam. For all the talk of independent Hoosiers, the state has gone Republican in 16 of the last 17 races for the White House, with Lyndon Johnson in 1964 the sole exception. In 2004, the networks began painting Indiana Republican red exactly two minutes after the polls closed with the breathless verdict justified by George W. Bush's eventual 60 to 39 percent rout of John Kerry.

So what was Sarah Palin doing in the northern Indianapolis suburb of Noblesville Friday afternoon motivating the GOP faithful? Why are Barack Obama and the Republican National Committee advertising heavily on Indianapolis television? How come most recent polls (there have been only a handful of statewide surveys this month) show Obama within striking distance of the lead? Why has Indiana become 2008's most unlikely battleground state?

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Ignored for decades by presidential candidates, Indiana in 2004 boasted a dubious distinction -- the lowest turnout rate among registered voters (57.4 percent) of any state in the union. Had the Obama campaign been pinched for cash instead of raking in a jaw-dropping $150 million in September, Indiana probably would have remained the Midwest's leading flyover state. Instead, buoyed by the primary turnout, the Obama team saw opportunity amid the decades of neglect. As Emily Parcell, the Indiana Obama coordinator puts it, "Unlike Iowa, where every election is hard fought and where a good field operation can add only about 3 percentage points, there is a much greater opportunity for a good field operation here. Hoosiers are not used to Democrats coming to their door. They're not used to being told about early voting."

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With its 11 electoral votes, Indiana -- like Virginia and North Carolina (which were closer and more contested in 2004) -- is a Republican state that McCain simply cannot afford to lose. But Democrats here are still in a pinch-me-I'm-dreaming mood as they find themselves on the front lines of a battleground state. "We've never had attention before," marvels Dan Parker, the state chairman. "We've been attention starved." While overcoming a 500,000-vote deficit from 2004 remains a daunting challenge for Obama, many Hoosier Democrats would be privately thrilled if on Election Night, Indiana sits there for a few hours in the middle of the television maps -- neither red nor blue -- as it takes a long-awaited star turn as "Too Close to Call."

Read the complete article by Walter Shapiro here.